According to this article by BBC Sport, Chicago is the current favorite for the 2016 Olympics:
Chicago: 11/10 odds
Madrid: 15/2 odds
Rio: 5/2 odds
Tokyo: 3/1 odds
The article also does a great job of quickly summing up each bids premise, pros and cons. They also have audio interviews with representatives of each bid talking about their respective games.
Yesterday I mentioned that Tokyo and Chicago have very similar bids in regards to 'Compactness'. One thing this article points out is that Chicago's bid is compact but also at the center of the city (which according to the interview is unique for a bid). Tokyo's bid is also compact but isn't in the heart of the city. It's in a run down, industrial portion of Tokyo that would be part of an urban revitalization (very similar to what London is doing for their games in 2012).
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